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UCLA earns third place in National College Fed Challenge

The competition encourages undergraduate students to learn about the U.S. economy, monetary policymaking and the role of the Federal Reserve System

Ali Haider Ismail (Advisor), Blake Balak (Student), Terrence Yu (Student), Michael Barr (Federal Reserve Governor), Jiya Barman (Student), Valentina Alencar Barros (Student), Loretta Lye (Student), Chris Surro (Primary Advisor) / Photo: Federal Reserve

Citlalli Chávez-Nava

UCLA secured third place in the prestigious National College Fed Challenge, an annual team competition that invites undergraduate students to learn about the U.S. economy and monetary policymaking, simulating the work of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The finals were held in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 21. 

This year’s UCLA team included five student presenters chosen from a group of 25 students enrolled in a spring quarter course that prepares students for the fall competition. During the first round of the challenge, the UCLA team recorded a video outlining their federal policy proposal, opting to hold interest rates steady, a decision which differed from both the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the United States) and many other university teams who proposed cutting interest rates.

“This difference reflected the students’ analysis that dealing with inflation was still a pressing concern even as the labor market began to weaken,” said Chris Surro ‘20, assistant adjunct professor of economics at UCLA and the team’s head coach.

After the video submission, UCLA’s team moved on to the semifinal round, which consisted of a remote question and answer sessions with judges from the Federal Reserve system and eventually to the final round in Washington D.C., where students had to perform their presentation in person followed by live questions from judges.

“Our UCLA team had great teamwork and chemistry. They were extremely well prepared and showcased tremendous poise throughout the competition,” said Surro. “During our preparation, we emphasized ‘sounding like an economist,’ using the jargon and language that economists use, the students accomplished this extremely well.”

Back row: Chris Surro (Primary Advisor), Loretta Lye (Student), Valentina Alencar Barros (Student), Terrence Yu (Student), Blake Balak (Student), Ali Haider Ismail (Advisor) Front row: Francisco Vazquez-Grande (Judge), Karen Pence (Judge), Jiya Barman (Student holding the trophy in the middle front), Thomas Lubik (Judge), Matthew Luecke (Judge)/ Photo: Federal Reserve

Surro said UCLA’s team also relied on other classmates who worked behind the scenes, helping with research, making slides and graphs and writing scripts. Student teams were evaluated on their economic analysis, responses to the judges’ questions, teamwork and presentations.

Surro has advised the team since UCLA entered the competition in 2021. Initially, participation in the Fed Challenge was an unstructured, informal effort. Today, under Surro’s guidance, students prepare for the challenge through a dedicated course and collaborate closely with faculty and peers.

Third-year economics major Terrence Yu, one of this year’s UCLA team members, reflected on his recent experience.

“The most memorable part of the Fed Challenge was stepping inside the Federal Reserve building, where our team met Fed Governor Michael Barr,” he said. “Presenting our monetary policy recommendation in the actual FOMC boardroom to Federal Reserve economists, alongside my teammates, was truly a surreal and unforgettable experience.”

Yu said participating in the competition provided him with invaluable insights into economic policymaking.

“Before the Fed Challenge, I viewed monetary policy as fairly black-and-white, but stepping into the shoes of the FOMC showed me how nuanced and complex policymaking truly is. In an environment like today, every decision requires rigorous analysis of competing data, careful judgment under uncertainty and an awareness that every choice will be scrutinized,” he added.

The College Fed Challenge organizers praised the UCLA team for being so competitive despite this being only their fifth year in the program. Earlier this fall, UCLA’s Fed Challenge team won their division title, which earned them a spot in the finals.

In total, UCLA’s team has won four division titles and has earned two third place finishes during the final competition. This year’s College Fed Challenge included 139 schools from 36 states across the nation. Pace University earned first place, and Harvard College placed second.

“I thank these students for the dedication, creativity, and analytical skills they demonstrated as they grappled with real-world economic challenges,” said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell in a statement.

Yu said he encourages sophomores and juniors interested in economic policy to apply to the class when applications open during winter quarter.

“The Fed Challenge offers a rare chance to dive deeply into both theory and real-world application while developing valuable technical and soft skills. It’s also one of the few opportunities to be part of a smaller, tight-knit economics class at UCLA and build lasting friendships.”


UCLA’s 2025 National College Fed Challenge Team:

Student team members: Blake Balak (4th year), Jiya Barman (4th year), Terrence Yu (3rd year), Loretta Lye (4th year), Valentina Alencar Barros (4th year).

Student support team: Michelle Chen, Matthew Cherfane, Christian Helleberg, Anshika Khandelwal, Misha Canin, Sebastian Diaz, Kristina Gharibyan, Lily Aronovitz.

Coaches:

Head Coach: Chris Surro ’20, Adjunct Assistant Professor

Assistant Coach: Ali Haider Ismail, UCLA PhD student

UCLA’s Department of Economics also thanks their Board of Visitors members John Bucher, Terry Kramer, Albert Lee, Elizabeth Obershaw and Tracy Stuart for funding the trip.

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Reducing financial barriers to contraception lowers rate of unintended pregnancies and abortions

The UCLA study quantifies the benefits of federal programs that fund contraception for low-income Americans

Unsplash/Marina Raspopova

Citlalli Chávez-Nava

A UCLA clinical trial finds that reducing the costs of contraception results in 16% fewer unintended pregnancies and 12% fewer abortions among low-income women after two years.

In a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the study offers rigorous experimental evidence that directly connects financial access to contraception for a broad population of women in the United States, helping to answer questions of long-standing academic and policy interest.

“According to our findings, eliminating financial barriers allowed women to choose more effective contraception methods and reduce undesired pregnancies and abortions,” said Martha Bailey, professor of economics and director of the California Center for Population Research, and the study’s lead author.

In the U.S., the rate of unintended pregnancy is more than five times higher among women in poverty than women with incomes at least two times the poverty level. The study suggests that the high cost of reliable contraception is an important contributor.

The findings are particularly relevant for policy discussions surrounding ongoing cuts to the Title X program, which serves millions of low-income Americans.

Removing all contraceptive costs through M-CARES study

The findings were based on the Michigan Contraceptive Access, Research, and Evaluation Study (M-CARES) which recruited low-income women at Title X medical providers between 2018-2023. During this period, randomly assigned participants were given vouchers that made any method of contraception free or sharply discounted. The goal of the M-CARES study was to remove cost barriers for all methods available at Title X providers and to follow changes in the choice of contraception and pregnancy outcomes over time.

The findings were based on the Michigan Contraceptive Access, Research, and Evaluation Study (M-CARES) which recruited low-income women who sought care through Title X, a federal program that subsidizes reproductive health and family planning services for low-income Americans, between 2018 and 2023. During this period, randomly assigned participants were given vouchers that made any method of contraception free or sharply discounted.  The goal of the M-CARES study was to remove cost barriers for all methods available at Title X providers and to follow changes in the choice of contraception and pregnancy outcomes over time.

Based on data analysis over a two-year period, the study found:

  • A significant reduction in pregnancies and abortions. Subsidizing contraception resulted in:
    • A 16% reduction in pregnancies
    • A 12% reduction in abortions
  • A shift toward more effective contraceptive methods. Removing all financial barriers:
    • Increased the likelihood of buying contraception by 69%
    • Raised the efficacy of chosen methods by 44%
    • Raised the use of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs), such as intrauterine devices (IUDs) and implants, by 217%

“It’s important to note that the effects of the study last well beyond the availability of the subsidies. The effects of increasing affordability extend over a two-year period and likely beyond,” said Bailey.

Furthermore, unlike previous academic studies, the M-CARES survey findings include high-quality administrative micro-data offering a more comprehensive view of contraceptive use.

“Most studies have only been able to document changes in childbirth. Because we had administrative records, we were able to see changes in pregnancies and abortions, which are severely underreported in surveys,” added Bailey.

Timely findings for the 2026 Congressional budget adoption

In March of this year, the Trump Administration announced a freeze of close to $35 million in funding to Title X grantees. This freeze left California, among seven other states, without Title X funding. And there is a strong possibility this program will continue to face cuts or complete elimination for the upcoming 2026 federal fiscal year.

Bailey thinks that further disruptions to Title X grantees will be devastating for low-income women, worsening not just their health, but their social and economic outcomes as well as resources for their children.

“Generalizing our survey findings, we see that keeping Title X sliding scale costs as they stand now, results in significantly higher rates of unintended pregnancy among low-income women and causes more abortions nationally than if contraception were completely free,” said Bailey.

Instead, Bailey says the M-CARES evaluation provides evidence that federal Title X dollars help U.S. families and expanding the program would also have benefits.

“The Title X program is a cost-effective way to empower parents to choose their families according to their own desires,” she said. “Preserving Title X and expanding its generosity would strengthen the reproductive health safety net.”

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Video: UCLA Future of History Conference  

UCLA Social Sciences

UCLA’s Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History and UCLA’s Luskin Center for History and Policy hosted the “Future of History of Conference” on Nov. 3 at UCLA’s Luskin Conference Center.  

The event featured Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution Lonnie G. Bunch III and opening remarks by UCLA’s Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost Darnell Hunt.  

Below are recordings from the event.  

PART I: A Conversation with UCLA History Faculty  

Featuring:  

• Kelly Lytle Hernández, Thomas E. Lifka Endowed Chair of History Professor of UCLA Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History  

• Sanjay Subrahmanyam, Irving and Jean Stone Endowed Chair in Social Sciences Distinguished Professor, UCLA Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History  

• Vivien Tejada Assistant Professor, UCLA Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History  

Moderated by Brenda E. Stevenson Nickoll Family Endowed Chair in History and African American Studies Distinguished Professor, UCLA Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History 

PART II: A Conversation with Secretary Lonnie G. Bunch III  

Featuring:  

• Robin D. G. Kelley Gary B. Nash Endowed Chair in United States History Distinguished Professor, UCLA Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History  

• Athena N. Jackson, Norman and Armena Powell University Librarian, UCLA  

Moderated by David N. Myers Sady and Ludwig Kahn Endowed Chair in Jewish History Director, UCLA Luskin Center for History and Policy Distinguished Professor, UCLA Meyer and Renee Luskin Department of History  

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New data upends myths about Mexican migrant labor

Farm workers pick strawberries at Lewis Taylor Farms, which is co-owned by William L. Brim and Edward Walker who have large scale cotton, peanut, vegetable and greenhouse operations in Fort Valley, GA, on May 7, 2019. Mr. Brim talks about the immigration and disaster relief challenges following Hurricane Michael. USDA helped this farm with the Farm Service Agency (FSA) Emergency Conservation Program (ECP) for structural damage cleanup. He also mentions the importance of having Secretary Sonny Perdue, a person with an agricultural background, come visit and listen to 75 producers six months ago, in southern Georgia. The farm’s operation includes bell peppers, cucumbers, eggplant, squash, strawberries, tomatoes, cantaloupe, watermelon and a variety of specialty peppers on 6,500 acres; and cotton and peanuts on 1,000 acres. Near the greenhouses is a circular crop of long-leaf pines seedlings under a pivot irrigation system equipped with micro sprinklers. Long-leaf pines are an indigenous tree in the Southeast. Growers are working to increase the number of this slower growing hearty hardwood tree in this region. USDA Photo by Lance Cheung. FSA https://www.fsa.usda.gov/index ECP https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/conservation-programs/emergency-conservation/index

Temporary Mexican labor migration to the U.S. is largely legal today due to the rapid expansion of H2-A and H2-B visas, reversing a longstanding trend of unauthorized migrant flows

Farm workers pick strawberries at Lewis Taylor Farms in Fort Valley, Georgia, May 7, 2019. / (Photo: USDA courtesy of Flickr; public domain.)

UCLA International Institute

One of the main impacts of social science research is overturning enduring assumptions based on outdated information. Research based on the latest empirical data can have particularly salient impacts when the subject is Mexican labor migration to United States.

The research of Ruben Hernández-León, professor of sociology and director of the UCLA Latin American Institute, has focused on the migration of Mexican workers to the U.S. and their return to Mexico throughout his career. He recently published an article with colleague Efrén Sandoval (CIESAS-Noreste, Mexico) on the explosion of U.S. H2-A and H2-B visas over the last 20-25 years.

H2 visas are granted to foreign workers to do temporary agricultural work (H2-A) or heterogeneous “low-skilled” work (H2-B, which covers temporary work in such varied fields as landscaping, tree trimming, hotels and resorts, fisheries and seafood processing) in the U.S. In the late 1990s, the combined annual total of the two visas was slightly more than 30,000. By fiscal year 2025, the total had jumped to roughly 455,000: an increase of over 1,500%.

“The growth of these visas has been connected to a very important transformation in Mexican migration over the past roughly 20 years: the channeling of formerly unauthorized flows to legal channels,” remarked Hernández-León.

Although technically open to workers from around the world, the vast majority of these time-limited visas are currently granted to Mexican workers (90% of H2-As, 65–70% of H2-Bs). Many of these workers return year after year to work for the same employers for a specified time period and then return home. “They become sort of career H2-visa workers,” said the professor. “Workers establish relations with employers. And employers want people who they trust, who they know will get the job done.”

The total number of Mexicans who annually receive H2 visas and travel legally to work in the U.S. is now conservatively estimated at 500,000. “This is roughly the same number of undocumented migrants who were crossing the border — south to north, from Mexico to the United States — during the heyday of undocumented migration in the late 1990s and early 2000s,” said Hernández-León.

Several major forces have pushed Mexican worker migration from an undocumented to a documented pipeline. First, pointed out the UCLA professor, “A very profound demographic change has been taking place in Mexico over the past 20 to 30 years. Mexican families are now having very few children, so there are fewer entrants into the general labor market.” Second, the migrant Mexican population in the U.S. is aging, especially farm workers, and these older workers are being replaced by H2 visa holders. Finally, border enforcement has made it increasingly difficult for employers to hire undocumented workers.

“A great many undocumented workers continue to work in U.S. agriculture, and the majority are still from Mexico,” continued Hernández-León, “but agribusinesses are using more and more H2 visas to get their workers, despite their complaints about the process.”

Mexican labor migration has traditionally been circular

The advent and growth of H2 visas, noted the professor, “has permitted a restoration of circulation, which was an old feature of U.S.-Mexico migration, but less so during the so-called undocumented years.”

One of the largest programs to bring Mexican workers to the U.S. on a legal basis was the Bracero Program, which ran from 1942 to 1964. “It was a bilateral agreement between the Mexico and the U.S. to bring millions of temporary workers to the U.S. from Mexico through the use of visas and contracts,” said Hernández-León.

When the program ended in 1964, observed the researcher, “The most important legal channel for Mexicans to work in the U.S. was closed. Labor migration did not end, however; it continued and even grew, only to become a largely unauthorized, irregular flow between the two countries for some 40 to 50 years.”

Travel to and from the U.S. on the part of migrant workers continued until border controls tightened in the 1990s, eventually making it difficult for them to return home. As a result, a large population of undocumented migrants stayed and settled in the U.S, said Hernández-León. They continue, he said, to work in agriculture and other industries where jobs either have very low social status in U.S. society or where surges of workers are needed seasonally.

Dilemmas and contradictions of the H2 visa regime

As opposed to the original Bracero Program, which was a bilateral treaty, the H2 visa regime — which amounts to a Bracero II program, albeit on a smaller scale — is operated entirely by the U.S.

Workers are thus unable to turn to the Mexican government to address such abuses as exploitative wages, factory town prices for local goods, “bribes” levied by brokers for U.S. employers, lack of water and shade in the fields and grossly substandard living quarters. Instead, they are largely left to turn to state authorities for enforcement of their contracts, a process that is spotty at best and varies by state.

H2-A visa workers are also being used by agribusinesses to pressure undocumented farm workers living in the U.S., who are beginning to organize unions to demand better working conditions and wages, observed Hernández-León.

“Whether or not the wages of H2-visa have a negative effect on the wages of U.S. workers,” commented the professor, “what U.S. employers are doing is not really satisfying temporary shortages. They creating a regular binational workforce.” And while the legal Mexican agricultural workforce remains small compared to the total agricultural U.S. workforce, it plays a significant role in harvesting, a critical step in the food production process overall.

“Temporary Mexican migration to the U.S. is largely legal now,” concluded Hernández-León. “That actually goes against a very established idea, which at this point is largely a myth, that the flow of migrant workers from Mexico is largely unauthorized. Employers have to petition H2 visa workers through the Department of Labor and Mexican workers have to clear Homeland Security inspections and interviews to receive these visas.”

This story was originally published via UCLA’s International Institute, here.