She will provide a more informed picture of how American families are changing and what it means for policy and the future
Citlalli Chávez-Nava
On Oct. 12, UCLA’s College will redouble its commitment to its Bruin ideals of higher education: educating tomorrow’s leaders and advancing research and creative activity at its first-ever UCLA College Lecture Awards.
One of the five honored professors will be Martha Bailey, a professor in UCLA’s Department of Economics. In addition to leading LIFE‑M, an ambitious data infrastructure project linking millions of birth, marriage and death records with census information on everything from household size and wages to educational attainment across four generations, Bailey also directs UCLA’s California Center for Population Research (CCPR), a dynamic social science research hub with over 200 affiliates, including more than 100 faculty.
Ahead of UCLA College Lecture Awards, UCLA spoke with Bailey about what audiences can expect from her presentation, which will include highlights of her work on analyzing the long-term changes in U.S. fertility rates.
Can you share a bit as to the topic of your upcoming lecture?
My lecture will focus on falling fertility rates, one of the most universal and consequential changes of the last century. Birth rates have declined in nearly every country in the world, and that shift has reshaped families, labor markets and the economy. A lot of media coverage focuses on the last decade, but I’ll be talking about the longer sweep of history and placing our current experience within that context. I’ll also be debunking a few myths and explain why it’s easy to get this story wrong.
Why do you think it’s important to discuss this topic now?
Falling birth rates are one of those headlines that produce anxiety for a lot of reasons, but some of this conversation rests on a misreading of the facts. So I’ve put together some data to show how some widely repeated claims don’t hold up. A few spoilers: American families are not shrinking; childlessness is not rising; and fertility rates among the most educated women are rising. The gap in family size between the most and least advantaged Americans is smaller today than at any time in the last 100 years.
What do you hope audience members will walk away with after the event?
I hope the audience will leave with a clearer and more grounded picture of how American families are changing. Falling fertility rates are real, but this is not a story of the collapse of the American family. I also look forward to what the next chapter of the American family might hold and why history gives us reason for optimism.
What is your specific focus and goal of your economic research?
I’m a labor economist, a demographer and an economic historian. When you put all those three things together, that means that I study people’s lives over time — sometimes across one generation, sometimes across as many as four. The goal of this research is to try to go beyond understanding how public policies affect things in the short run to understand how they shape people’s opportunities and outcomes in the long run.
How did you become interested in assessing the long-term effects of economic policy and social programs?
My fascination began when I started reading about the War on Poverty. It was one of the most ambitious efforts in American history to expand economic opportunity, and it included a sweeping set of social programs targeting education, health and nutrition. But within a few years, social scientists and policymakers had decided it had failed. That puzzled me: many of the programs were designed to help children, so how could they know whether it failed so soon? And these evaluations were in an era where quantitative social science was in its infancy: how could they have concluded cause and effect so decisively without modern tools of causal inference?
My research followed up on these questions and often led me to some very different conclusions. For example, many of the War on Poverty programs did not work, but others made lasting differences. The effects had been there for years waiting for us to uncover them. This discovery is the part of research that I love.
What college class changed your life?
Many of them, but very memorably: calculus. I had always liked math, but I didn’t realize I had any talent until my college professor returned my first exam and whispered: “You are quite good at this.” Being noticed and encouraged like that really motivated me, and it eventually led me to economics. I try to pass this type of recognition to my own students who have far more talent than they often realize.
What are you most looking forward to for the UCLA College Lecture Awards?
I’m excited to share the stage with such an inspiring group. I am sure I will learn a great deal.
Click here to register for the Oct. 12 UCLA College Lecture Awards